Ukraine is catching up with Russia in aerial warfare (2024)

Between the naval force which, very unexpectedly, managed to destroy 20% of the Russian Black Sea fleet, and ground forces facing significant challenges in the Donbas, the Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) is at a pivotal moment. Ill-prepared and suffering from a huge disadvantage in numbers at the start of the invasion, it nevertheless inflicted severe losses on Russian air forces even before the arrival of American F-16 fighter jets.

Since the beginning of the year, two A-50 surveillance aircraft (the eyes and ears of the Russian Air Force) and an Il-22 command aircraft have been shot down by Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems. These had been stealthily advanced close to the front line, surprising the Russians. Subsequently, more than a dozen Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers and at least one Su-35 fighter were shot down by the same systems, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.

In total, the Russian Air Force (VVS) has so far lost 105 aircraft, according to specialized open-source intelligence site Oryx (which only counts losses verified by visual documentation). On the Ukrainian side, losses since the start of the invasion amount to 75 combat aircraft. The Russian Ministry of Defense provides a grotesque exaggeration (575 losses), bearing in mind that Ukraine owned 98 fighter jets at the end of 2021 and has since received only 27 MiG-31s, supplied in 2023 by Poland and Slovakia. And while the damage suffered by the VVS has been increasing in recent weeks, Ukraine suffered three quarters as many losses, mainly on the ground, during the first months of the war.

Kyiv must break Russia's aerial domination if it is to halt the advance of Russian troops into the Donbas and ultimately win back its occupied territories. The VVS is carrying out strikes deep in Ukrainian territory, threatening Ukrainian airfields and weapons factories. The VVS is facilitating the advance of Moscow's ground forces by dropping a carpet of guided glide bombs (GGBs) on Ukrainian fortifications along the entire length of the front.

'Soviet tactics'

"Our adversary's biggest flaw is that they're still stuck with highly centralized Soviet tactics and procedures," said Phantom, a 40-something who masked his name, and the lower part of his face, by order of the General Staff. Currently abroad, the pilot is preparing for the arrival of American F-16 multirole fighters in his country. In his opinion, Russian pilots receive far less training than European NATO pilots. "Their standards are dropping. The pilots aren't the same as they were at the start of the full-scale invasion. No doubt they're younger or less well trained and less experienced."

You have 61.66% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.